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Vol. 14 №3 (2026)

Article

THE PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESULTS OF THE " VESELYY DELFIN" COMPETITION FOR REACHING THE FINALS OF THE RUSSIAN SWIMMING CHAMPIONSHIP: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS (0.52 Mb, pdf) Read
Authors:
Kopylov Konstantin Vasilyevich
Keywords:
sports selection
forecasting
swimming
young athletes
retrospective analysis
Veselyy Delfin
Annotation:

The objective of this study was to use a retrospective analysis to identify the predictive value of the results of the "Vesely Delfin" competition for reaching the finals of the Russian Swimming Championships.

Methods and study design.The analysis of the protocols of the competitions of the Championships of Russia – CR (2012-2025) and«Veselyy Delfin» – "VD" (2011-2021) was carried out. The sample included4248 boys(13-14years old) and3368 girls(11-12years old) – participants of the «Veselyy Delfin», ofwhich 122boys and117 girlssubsequently became finalists of the CR. Logistic regression,ROC analysis,bootstrap verification, and one-way variance analysis (ANOVA) were used.

Results and discussion. A significant correlation was found between the all-around ranking position and the probability of reaching the finals of the CR for both boys and girls participants (p<0,001). The adjusted probabilities for the "VD" leaders were 21% (boys) and 18% (girls); the probabilities for swimmers below 50th place were 7% (boys) and 6% (girls). For boys, the key predictors of reaching the finals were the 200m individual medley and 800m freestyle, while for girls, it was only the 200m individual medley. Future finalists in all specializations significantly outperformed their peers in the control group in the studied distances. Future finalists of both sexes demonstrated an emerging profile of distance specialization.

Conclusion. "VD" competitions have high predictive value for reaching the national championship finals. The results show that the foundation for future success at the initial specialization stage is general technical preparedness and endurance, rather than early narrow specialization.

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